In broad strokes, the electoral context for the Senate race in Texas is clear enough. Democrats are going to be a major underdog in a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2024. It’s also clear that Democrats can win — if Republicans can win a Senate race in Massachusetts and Democrats win one in Alabama in the right circumstances, between what’s likely to be the very favorable political context for Dems in November and at least the partial reversal of some of the demographic trends that made Texas non-competitive in 2024 the Dems aren’t drawing dead.

To get into more detail, and on why Paxton winning might give the Dems at least a puncher’s chance:

The most basic take here is that Trump seems to have questionable taste in candidates. Just like with Herschel Walker in 2022, he chose the loyal but scandal-plagued over the safe “establishment” option.

In previous cycles, these Trump-backed candidates have seriously underperformed. And Trump’s endorsement of Paxton comes at a time when Trump’s political standing is probably at its all-time low: he’s at a net -19.3 in our approval rating tracker, the worst rating for any president at this point in a nonconsecutive term.2

To level-set here: the Texas general election contest is the proverbial case of a rock meeting a hard place. It’s a very red state, having repeatedly defied Democrats’ wishes to “Turn Texas Blue”. It’s the kind of place that has survived blue waves, like in 2018, when Ted Cruz was just far enough ashore to beat Beto O’Rourke by 2.7 points.

Ordinarily, this year’s race would project as a carbon copy of the 2018 contest. While Democrats have expanded their lead to nearly 7 points on our generic ballot tracker, our modeled version of state partisanship scores projects that would still translate to roughly an R +4 in Texas, producing another case of Democratic dreams narrowly deferred.

But that’s assuming “generic” candidates, which Paxton very much is not.

Polls testing both Republicans against Talarico have suggested a serious opening for Democrats. Cornyn and Paxton have fared similarly against Talarico in recent polls of the November contest — and similarly mediocrely. You could even argue for the presence of a slight Talarico edge since he won his primary (without a runoff) in March.

This is the point at which we must step in to express some skepticism. This early in the race, a well-designed model would place greater weight on “fundamentals” like state partisanship than on polls. Candidate quality does matter, but large over- and underperformances are getting rarer.

But scandals do still matter electorally, and our historical research suggests the impact is roughly in the 5-point range. In other words, if Texas were projected to be an R +4 in November given “generic” candidates, that might flip to a tie or a D +1 against a scandal-plagued Republican. And scandals are a category in which Paxton might be the Southeast Division regional record-holder (quite an accomplishment in a subdivision that also includes Louisiana).

In other words, while we’d be skeptical of polls showing that Cornyn would lose to Talarico, prediction markets showing a toss-up between Talarico and Paxton are probably working off reasonable assumptions.

It’s an uphill climb. But the Democrats can’t re-take the Senate and stop the Trumpification of the federal judiciary without a couple upsets, and they need to contest any remotely winnable seat. Talarico needs to be given all the resources he needs as long as the race is at all competitive, and let’s hope he proves to be a good candidate.

The post [Midterm] Blexas? appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the state’s Republican primary runoff election yesterday, giving a big ego boost to Donald Trump, who endorsed Paxton only after polling already showed he was likely to win. It it wasn’t even remotely close: With 99 percent of the votes tallied, Paxton stomped Cornyn by nearly 28 points, with 63.8 percent of the vote to Cornyn’s 36.2 percent. Texas Republicans had no problems choosing the scandal-rotted Paxton over the blandly rightwing Cornyn, convincing themselves that Cornyn was some kind of RINO despite his nearly perfect voting record on legislation Trump supported. Given a choice between Rightwing and Fucking Insane Rightwing, Texas Republicans will almost always go with crazy. At least in the primaries.

What remains to be seen is whether Trump’s hardcore MAGA support will turn out in large enough numbers to elect Paxton in November, especially if the economy keeps getting worse and Trump’s stupid Iran War keeps fuel prices high. Maaaaybe high oil prices will lead to more oil and gas drilling in Texas, and more jobs, but it’s hard to say whether Texas voters will consider that a good tradeoff if gasoline continues to cost nearly $4 a gallon in the state as it is right now.

The other big question in the race against Democratic nominee James Talarico will be whether Texas voters at large are willing to overlook what a sleazy bastard Paxton is. Sure, MAGA primary voters didn’t mind that Paxton had a Forever Indictment on securities fraud charges (settled in 2024), was impeached by his own party (but narrowly avoided conviction), AND has allegedly cheated on his wife (she’s divorcing him on “biblical grounds,” and we don’t think that meant he wore mixed fabrics). Paxton’s constant culture warring on favorite MAGA themes like immigration and hating LGBTQ+ people may no longer play as well with voters outside the diehard MAGA base, either.

When the outcome of the primary runoff was clear, Talarico quickly released an ad calling Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America,” which probably made Trump jealous since nobody is more superlatively corrupt.

After pointing out that Paxton was impeached by his own party just three years ago, Talarico added, “That kind of corruption is the rot at the core of this broken system. It's why we can't afford anything. It's why we can't get ahead no matter how hard we work.” It’s a good ad!

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Feed The Kitty

One of the funny things about Cornyn’s loss — maybe not ha-ha-funny — was that in TrumpMerica, a lot of the things that used to count as electoral strengths are now liabilities. Cornyn was an unfailingly loyal Republican, moving up into leadership and serving as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and as Senate GOP whip, but to MAGA, those team-player lines on his résumé didn’t make him a respected leader, they made him a “Washington insider,” a member of the “corrupt establishment,” and again, a RINO. His free trade positions may once have meant he was a principled free-market conservative, but now they make him a scary “globalist.”

Sure, Cornyn reliably voted with Trump — 99 percent of the time! — and unlike Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, Cornyn voted against impeaching Dear Leader after the January 6, 2021, insurrection. But he rejected the lie that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election, voted to certify that election, and continued to criticize Trump for having incited the attack on the US Capitol. Why, he didn’t even pretend the rioters were mere tourists!

Also, following the 2022 Uvalde massacre, Cornyn helped write the very very mild package of incremental improvements to US gun laws in the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which Texas Republicans seized on to proclaim that Cornyn wanted to take everyone’s guns away. Trump obligingly called Cornyn a RINO who supported “Radical Left Democrats” who wanted “to TAKE YOUR GUNS AWAY.”

No wonder Texas Republicans voted against that commie John Cornyn. He didn’t even manage to win Trump’s endorsement earlier this month when he introduced a bill to upgrade a major Texas-to-almost-Canada highway into a full freeway, to be named Interstate 47, get it? Sadly for Cornyn, the gesture didn’t catch Dear Leader’s eye. Maybe it was too nuanced — he could’ve added a gold medal and a peace prize to the proposed highway signs.

The Texas Gooper primary was the most expensive the state has ever seen, with dark-money Republican-aligned groups pouring millions into the race. The super-PAC supporting Cornyn, Texans for a Conservative Majority, raised almost $35.6 million this election cycle, with nearly a a quarter of that total, about $8.3 million, coming from just six big dark-money nonprofits. All told, Texas’s US Senate race has already seen spending of $112 million, blasting the 2022 US Senate election in Arizona out of the water for the most expensive Senate race ever. And the general election campaign is just getting started. With control of the Senate in play, spending on both sides is likely to be astronomical. Could be “interesting” to see whether the big money that went to support Cornyn will now start flowing to the far crazier Paxton.

It’s also going to get extremely ugly, with Paxton and his patron Trump lying incessantly about Talarico and depicting him as a crazy radical loon who hates Jesus, which they’ve already been doing for months. Trump himself has joined in with a bunch of weird lies, calling Talarico “Alfred E. Neumann,” insisting that Talarico loves open borders and crime, and a bunch of other bizarre accusations. According to Trump, Talarico also “believes there are 6 genders, is insulting to Jesus Christ, will never support the Military, was a big Mask Wearer until recently, and is a Vegan who dislikes meat.” (Reality: Talarico in in his 2022 campaign for the state House suggested eating less meat because it’s healthier and better for the climate. Talk about a radical madman.)

And yes, Republicans are really doubling down on the claim that Talarico is a “vegan,” because that means he’s probably a gay homosexual. Talarico doesn’t seem especially worried. Back in March, his campaign released an official rebuttal consisting of a photo showing him chowing down on a barbecued turkey leg at the Texas state fair.

And in an interview yesterday, Talarico used the accusation as a springboard to remind voters of a slightly more important distinction between himself and Paxton, saying, “I’m an eighth-generation Texan. I’ve been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment.” Nicely done.

Nevertheless, it’s going to be a long hot summer of stupid tofu jokes, and worse. You could send James Talarico a donation for just the price of a few pounds of Trump-tariffed beef.

OPEN THREAD.

[NPR / Texas Monthly / NBC News / Open Secrets / Joe. My God.]

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Where's The Beef?

I wake before dawn to coordinate with my vast network of parental co-conspirators. Our agenda this morning is straight fire, as the youth would say, beginning with a vigorous debate about scheduling sunrise for maximum cruelty. We ultimately settle on triggering dawn just a liiiiiitle bit earlier than it was yesterday.

We think it’ll be funny to do this incrementally over time, and then start inching it back again, just to make sure our kids can scream “But the sun’s not even up yet!” at a slightly different time each day.

After receiving an updated list of slang we can use to mortify our children, we adjourn. In my rush to rouse my child from her blissful slumber, I trip, deliberately upending her curated mountain of Floor Clothes. The exact pair of micro-shorts she planned to wear is now lost forever. I have no one but myself to blame for blowing past our intended departure time.

I set this time arbitrarily, just to be mean. The resulting argument is absolutely my fault.

After dropping off my exhausted, mistreated child at what is basically jail, I drive to work, where I callously disregard a cascade of urgent texts.

Mom

MOM

MOMMY

Where r presents in my lunch

Pretzels not prezzies

Can u bring

Mom

I forgot to finish my project

Did u buy

Glitter

Can u bring and

MOMMY

When I finally wrap up whatever meeting, brain surgery, or congressional testimony is preventing me from attending to my child’s needs, I respond only “We will discuss this tonight. Stop texting before you get suspended.”

I do this because texting complete sentences takes forever, and also because I don’t care that my child is starving and facing a flunk-inducing glitter penalty.

On my way home from work, I don’t pick up food my child actually likes. Why would I? We have gross food at home, and I enjoy preparing it for maximum disgust.

I cruelly ignore her gags of despair over both food and math, because I’m too busy tapping away on some stupid work thing.

When I finish drafting my presentation for the CEO, sequencing DNA for a cure to cancer, or writing some speech for the United Nations, I close my laptop and announce that it’s time to relax.

My child’s friends are all watching the ending of Trashy People Treating Each Other Atrociously, but I make sure she misses it. It’s time to watch Documentary About Fonts or, if I’m feeling adventurous, People in Old Clothes Talking Fancy.

I enjoy making my child a social pariah. The world is full of children who never get to learn this much about kerning.

I’m so busy watching my show that I forget to remind my child about her overdue project. The fact that I don’t know to remind her is beside the point. My child is resourceful, and she will totally be able to finish as long as I know, without being told, to take her to Target before it closes at ten.

I set this time arbitrarily and just to be mean. The resulting argument is absolutely my fault.

After another hard day of ruining my child’s life, it’s time for bed. I begin my evening routine of slathering myself with cheap drug-store lotion and maybe Vaseline, who knows? It’s like I don’t even know about retinol or Sephora. I think Drunk Elephant is an intoxicated pachyderm.

That’s why I look exactly as ancient as I am. I may say that forty-whatever isn’t old, but pores don’t lie.

I am asleep by 10:30 p.m. Then by 11:15, after my child wakes me up because she heard a noise. Then by 12:02, after she wakes me up again to remind me about the glitter.

Then, at 5:15 a.m., when my alarm wakes me up so I can get to CVS when it opens at six (or is it seven?), so I can assess their craft supplies.

I hurry back to make the daily Parent Conspiracy Roundtable, of course. I never miss it. Today’s agenda looks like it’s going to eat and leave no crumbs.

“Rather than tilting at a windmill, the proper procedure would be for Don Quixote to file suit to abolish all windmills, ideally in the Fifth Circuit.”

“Whether in the nouveau riche West Egg or the old-money East Egg, housing restrictions are a reasonable tool for maintaining property value and historic neighborhood character.”

“Huck shows great disrespect for the Court’s precedent in Dred Scott when aiding the fugitive Jim, presumably due to liberal indoctrination by the Widow Douglas.”

“Simply wearing a small red letter A is no great burden, and it would infringe upon the free speech of the rest of the town were Hester Prynne not to wear it.”

“The Narrative of the Life of Frederick Douglass relates only his own views on slavery; we cannot properly assess the merits of his book without giving equal time to his slave owner.”

“As we can see from the difficulties Gulliver encounters when he travels to the lands of the tiny Lilliputians and the gigantic Brobdingnagians, immigration should be discouraged.”

“It is the prerogative of the government of Oceania to determine each day whether Eurasia or East Asia is the enemy, and congressional approval would unjustly constrain Big Brother.”

“Iago says that he has no reason for hating Othello, and it would be wrong of us to impute any racist anti-Moor motivation on his part.”

“Instances of both pride and prejudice have decreased over time, and it is therefore time to abolish protections for the Bennet sisters that unduly burden their suitors.”

“Despite The Jungle’s focus on the possibility of rats or the occasional factory worker winding up in a hot dog, the true horror would be higher meat prices due to an overprotective nanny state.”-

“Packing Bertha Mason into the attic of Thornfield Hall while allowing Jane Eyre to use the rest of the house is permissible because it is based on restricting her proto-feminist hysteria, not her Creole racial identity.”

“By being such a miser, Scrooge saves enough money to cure Tiny Tim of the diseases caused by Scrooge not paying his father enough in wages, demonstrating that privatized health care and non-union labor are self-correcting.”

“Please see the attached doctor’s note excusing me from reading The Narrative of Sojourner Truth, as it could cause acute psychological distress and fainting spells.”